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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly serves as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. However, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

However this year's field is distinctly unique. The pool of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners declining and recent underperformers improving together. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right system, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a normal season!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still