Keir Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.

Major Hurdles in the Selection Process

Multiple members on the party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.