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Just two days before the NYC mayoral election, Michael Lange made a bold forecast – not just the winner overall, and precinct by precinct. The analyst, an expert in elections born and raised in the city, devoted more than ten years in progressive politics and has become something of a local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He released his extremely precise forecast map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although missing the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his newsletter, his platform. He has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from one neighborhood to Bushwick to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the mainstream paper” in readership and the majority of electors leaned toward the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Trends and Unexpected Results

How was your night?

It was necessary because they were adding around 200,000 votes into the system every few minutes! I felt a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani was ahead the early vote by 12 points, but came two big batches of votes that came in after that and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, there was a world where yesterday turned out kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which Cuomo was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. However Mamdani added half a million votes to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He campaigned and massively expanded his base from the primary.

Expanding Support

Where did the mayor-elect get additional support from?

He assembled the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and individuals squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the earlier election. Additionally he boosted his core of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He created the alliance that the left long aimed for: diverse, young, renters and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a genuine phenomenon, confined to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that supported the former president previously went for Zohran now. But it’s not that he was winning over white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Impact

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high turnout. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Turnout was significantly higher than anticipated. I figured it could exceed two million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – which is a lot of darn voters. Existed a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Currently it appears he’s likely to get over half. He’s at just over 50% but remain around 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe probable, and I hope he does because then none can claim the Republican was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His support completely collapsed.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any area. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, similar to an highly conservative area. That really was unexpected. Cuomo held very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained many conservatives on the island who had a high participation. I think occurred a lot of strategic balloting by the Republicans. They were doing it prior to the former president endorsed for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for the candidate overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view existed some weakening of the commie corridor in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and residents all went for Cuomo. So there existed some opposition. However overall, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he scored between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on whether Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

Exist areas with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he did well. However in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Upper East Side, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned the independent. And also, you have newcomers from the former Soviet Union in the borough, who were strongly supportive. Therefore I don’t know if existed major surprises on this one, but he retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city represents in politics? Will the commie corridor serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that key figures from progressives come from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

But I believe that every city in America can have similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of progressive influence in the nation – since youth reside there, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities exist.